The Collapse of the 28-Point Peace Initiative for Ukraine: How Peace Negotiations Continue to Falter

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.